(A CLARION CALL ON THE PRESIDENT, HIS EXCELLENCY, ASIWAJU BOLA AHMED TINUBU).
Mr President sir,
I write as a committed, long-standing and consistently loyal party member in Lagos, one who has never defected from the progressive fold nor deflected from its ideological agenda.
I am passionately concerned about resolving the quagmire in the Lagos State Chapter of our party.
There is no gain saying the fact that the Lagos chapter of the APC remains the strongest political structure in the state.
However, it is presently experiencing silent but heightened internal tensions arising from competition among its two major political blocs, the Justice Forum (JF) and The Mandate Movement (TMM).
This development has been described in many quarters as a ticking time bomb.
The popular axioms of “United we stand, divided we fall” and “A house that is divided against itself cannot stand“ are considerably applicable in the search for cohesion and unity in Lagos APC.
The recent primaries for legislative positions and earlier local government council and party exco contests have exposed deep-seated grievances and animosities over inclusion, candidate selection, power sharing, and internal democracy.
Recently, as a corroboration of deepening crises within the state chapter, a development some of its leaders are waving off of as negligible, insignificant and mere storm in a tea cup, the Iyaloja- General Folasade Tinubu-Ojo threatened a protest and called for the scrapping of the groups within the Lagos chapter, owing to obvious clash among them over 2027 elections and the confusions that have trailed endorsement of candidates and party officials at the wards, LGAs and State levels, local government council election to selection of supervisors, climaxed by the controversial emergence of House of Representatives and State House of Assembly candidates.
Also, Babajide Kolade-Otitoju, ace journalist, political analyst and broadcaster in a recent talk show ‘Race to 2027 elections’ on TVC news made in-depth and apt remarks on the rumpus within the Lagos chapter of APC and called for your (President Bola Tinubu’s) intervention in the ongoing imbroglio when he said and I quote him verbatim;
“There is no way the President will not do that because in some cases those who won election had their names substituted by these same powerful people that I am talking about who believe that they own the APC, people who couldn’t stop the President from losing the Presidential election in Lagos despite all their grandstanding. They had to fix some things before such upset was not repeated in the Governorship election “.
Kolade-Otitoju spoke further;
“So, in this case now, I expect that the President will intervene as he always does and the results would be released…..”
He also posited that;
“the APC primary elections were very competitive. People of diverse interests put their gaze on it because of their interests and in many cases, these were personal interests which do not represent the interest of the majority. The majority would have voted for a particular candidate but because some people are strong, they now go and change the names”.
Responding to a question on whether these ‘powerful persons’ weigh the consequences of their actions, Kolade-Otitoju remarked;
“They take risks. I can tell you Mr President loosing Presidential election in Lagos was partly the consequence of the ‘MagoMago’ done during the primary elections.
I know people were cheated……..religion also played a part…….but the disharmony, the rancor and the bad blood that happened as a result of manipulation of primaries caused much problems “.
Tracing their political trajectory and current dynamics, the Justice Forum and The Mandate Movement have historically coexisted as the two dominant tendencies within Lagos APC.
Their rivalry is not new and is rooted in struggles over political influence, representation, and access to party structures.
As 2027 elections approach, both groups are in the midst of storm over candidates’ selection and collaboration on general affairs of the party towards the 2027 elections.
Mr President sir, recent events reveal concerns on exclusion and marginalization during party primaries
and complaints of candidates imposition.
Observations have also been made about disagreements among influential stakeholders, growing dissatisfaction among grassroots members and aspirants and imbalance in the distribution of political opportunities.
The public comments by Iyaloja Folasade Tinubu-Ojo deserves a cursory look rather than being taken for granted or dismissed as self-serving as it is presently being described.
Furthermore, protests and complaints from various local governments across the state deserve attention and not dismissal.
To consign them as inconsequential or orchestrated may be the party’s greatest undoing.
Considering Babajide Kolade-Otitoju’s unbiased and independent analysis, should we not investigate allegations of manipulation of the process ? Not doing so will be insensitive and unjust.
There is also the need to intensify efforts on harnessing and strengthening the future direction of the party, a process that will not be achievable if genuine concerns are not addressed. A stitch in time, they say, saves many tears.
To do anything else than managing these crises would amount to only scratching issues on the surface.
The likely dangers inherent in inaction over these myriad of issues staring the APC Lagos Chapter in the face may manifest in erosion of internal cohesion and unity, continued factionalism, weakened structures and efforts,
demoralization of grassroot members, discouragement from party activities and campaigns and reduced enthusiasm.
All the foregoing can reduce the interest of political and apolitical stakeholders and admirers; party members, volunteers, mobilizers, ward leaders, community canvassers, market and youth groups, professional associations, religious organizations and other broad spectrum .
Our inaction can also result in a risk of protest votes, passive resistance and low turnout among supporters and party members during elections as experienced in 2023.
A review of APC’s electoral performance in the presidential election in Lagos between 2019 and 2023 reveals both enduring strengths and emerging vulnerabilities that require urgent political attention.
WHAT THE FIGURES INTERPRET.
PRESIDENTIAL(Lagos)
2019:
APC – 580,814
PDP – 448,016
(APC won by 132,798 votes).
2023:
APC – 572,606 (45.04%)
LP – 582,454 (45.81%)
(APC lost by 9,848 votes)
MAJOR INFERENCES;
1) There was the bigger picture of the emergence of a powerful new opposition coalition around Labour Party.
We must strive to curtail history from repeating itself in this wise.
2) Urban middle-class dissatisfaction became visible because areas such as Ikeja, Eti-Osa, Ajeromi-Ifelodun, Surulere, Kosofe, Amuwo-Odofin, Ojo and parts of Lagos Mainland showed stronger opposition voting patterns than previously seen, as we either managed to win or outrightly lost elections in these areas.
Our winning plan must include checkmating the trend.
3) Youth mobilisation changed the electoral landscape and social media-driven influencing and participation brought many first-time voters into the process. They formed themselves into non physical movements and APC’s traditional ward and grassroots structures faced unprecedented digital opposition mobilisation.
We must put in place a very robust and potent New Media campaign strategy beyond the traditionally popular media.
4) Internal and Public Image and Perception challenges hurt the party via complaints about candidate selection processes, internal factionalism and allegations of exclusion, weakened enthusiasm among some traditional supporters owing to their impression about reform policies of government.
Conflicts must be resolved and public image corrected.
IMPLICATIONS FOR APC IN LAGOS;
1) It is dangerous to remain unperturbed and complacent as the 2023 presidential result demonstrated that no political dominance is permanent.
2) Internal divisions may result in electoral liabilities and defeat because unabated frictions among major blocs such as Justice Forum, The Mandate Movement and other stakeholder groups risk alienating committed party members, if not carefully managed.
3) The demographic structure of Lagos is changing rapidly and youth voters cannot be ignored.
A large percentage of voters are under 40 and are increasingly influenced by governance performance rather than historical party loyalty.
4) Lagos continues to attract residents from every part of Nigeria and non-indigene voters are becoming more influential.
Electoral strategies based solely on traditional support bases may become less effective.
REMEDYING THE SITUATION;
1. We must review and reform our internal democracy process and not pay mere lip service to it; primary elections must be transparent, fair and credible, while complaints are genuinely addressed.
2) Internal dispute resolution mechanisms must be strengthened and all stakeholders and tendencies fairly treated and represented.
3) A Lagos APC reconciliation committee should be set up to rebuild party unity; representatives of elders, elected officials, youth representatives, women leaders and major political blocs must be involved, to engage aggrieved stakeholders before the forthcoming election.
4) We must persistently and continuously engage our youth and not do that only during campaigns; expand digital engagement, support youth entrepreneurship, strengthen policy communication and create pathways for young leaders within party and government structures.
5) Some wards, polling-unit agents, operatives, mobilizers and canvassers complain of non-payment for work done in the last election and neglect after the elections; this should be addressed and grassroots workers rewarded.
Motivation and recognition are essential to maintaining grassroots strength.
6) Voters are now increasingly focusing on, critiquing and evaluating governance performances, outcomes and policies; visible improvements in security, employment, economy, transportation, energy, housing and citizens’ general wellbeing come under scrutiny here.
Significant and positive transformation in these highlighted areas will translate into electoral goodwill.
7) The party should actively engage professionals, market associations, religious groups, ethnic communities, residents’ associations, civil society organisations, students and labour unions,etc, to expand involvement and inclusion
FURTHER INFERENCES;
1) The 2019 elections represented the peak of APC’s electoral dominance in Lagos, while the 2023 presidential election served as a warning signal rather than a collapse.
2) APC retained substantial support and remained the dominant political structure in the state, but the results showed that electoral loyalty can no longer be conclusively assumed.
3) If the party successfully addresses internal grievances, strengthens inclusion, improves candidate selection processes, and reconnects with younger and urban voters, Lagos can continue to remain a stronghold for it.
4) If these warning signs are ignored, the narrowing electoral margins observed in 2023 could become more pronounced in 2027 and future elections.
STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF 2027;
1) The 2027 elections present unique challenges.
Drawing lessons from 2023 , electoral complacency can be costly.
2) APC cannot afford internal fragmentation if it hopes to maximize its electoral performance in 2027.
3) The 2023 election has shown that electoral strength alone is insufficient for winning; party unity is equally important; no group can win Lagos alone, but together all groups can keep Lagos united and electorally strong.
4) The emphasis should shift from “Which group wins?” to “How does APC win?”
MY CONCLUSION AND PRAYER
The current tensions within Lagos APC are serious but manageable.
In many respects, they reflect the natural struggles of a robust, vibrant, large and dominant political organization.
However, if left unresolved, these disagreements could weaken party cohesion and affect electoral outcomes in 2027.
The path forward lies in reconciliation, inclusion, transparency, fairness, and renewed grassroots mobilization.
I wish to passionately appeal to the President, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, to cause the National Working committee of the APC to raise an independent team to have a second and cursory look at the outcomes of the last primary elections in Lagos state, especially in areas where there are controversies with a view to dousing tensions and ensuring that justice is served where necessary.
I am of the strong opinion that this is the way to go.
This is in view of claims that letters of appeal from aggrieved aspirants have either been swept under the carpet, trashed, manipulated or unjustly dismissed.
If the party successfully harmonizes the interests of its various tendencies and restores confidence among its rank and the public, it will enter the 2027 elections stronger, more united, and better positioned to maintain its political dominance in Lagos State.
Thank you Mr President for your envisaged action in the Lagos APC matter.
I remain Yours Sincerely,
LANRE OGUNYEMI,
Former two-term member of the Lagos State House of Assembly and former Lagos State Secretary of the Alliance for Democracy (AD) and the All Progressives Congress (APC).
