Harold Lasswell, defined politics as the “science of power”. He described it, as the “the study of the shaping and sharing of power”. In his book: Politics: Who gets What, When, How, Lasswell, described politics as the process of determining how scarce resources, privileges, and values are distributed among the ruling elites and the broader members of the society. The former governor of River State, under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), for eight years, Nyesom Wike, and presently the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), under the All Progressive Congress (APC)-led administration, appears to have mastered Lasswell’s teachings, on politics.
In what may amount to an elasticity of a political coalition, Wike over the weekend, hosted what the media described as a luncheon organized by the Rivers State Rainbow Coalition in Port Harcourt, in honour of candidates participating in the forthcoming governorship, National Assembly and state House of Assembly elections in Rivers State. Candidates of four political parties, namely, the APC, PDP, Labour Party (LP) and Action Alliance (AA), participated in the event. At the ceremony, the governorship candidate of APC, Ogundu Kingsley Chinda, announced the names of his co-contestants within the coalition, in the forthcoming 2027 gubernatorial election, as Sam Ejekwu of PDP, Chima Boms of LP and Ben Eke of AA.
Chinda postulated: “More political parties will join the coalition in the coming days. The essence of the rainbow has a spiritual connotation. It symbolizes a covenant, which is a strong agreement.” The videos and photographs of the event, showed the candidates and co-contestants seemingly in high spirits, happy and laughing. Some days earlier, a friend had importuned me, as to how a member of the PDP, and the Minority Leader in the House of Representatives, could become the governorship candidate of the APC, for Rivers State?
Not sure of the current party status of Chinda, I said, the man must have moved to APC without much ado. But while writing this column, I asked google, who is the current Minority Leader in the House of Representatives, and the answer surprisingly, was Chinda. While it is unlikely that Chinda is still a member of the PDP, it appears he has not formerly crossed over to the APC side,on the floor of the House of Representatives as happens when the Presiding Officer reads the communication from a member informing the Speaker that he has changed his/her party, in accordance with the rules of the House.
There is no chance as some have pushed in the social media that Chinda would still be in the PDP and emerge as the candidate of the APC. But he needs to relinquish his position as the Minority Leader, in the House. What is intriguing is how Wike has managed to control the coalition of what ordinarily should be a clash of ambitions. Until the stampede that saw the governor and members of the Rivers State House of Assembly, move to the APC, last year, the state was safely regarded as a PDP state.
The state governor, Siminalaya Fubara, was reportedly advised by a colleague governor to move into APC as a last ditch effort to establish a direct contact with the presidency as a way to neutralize the overbearing influence of Wike on his political survival. Unfortunately, for Fubara, instead of the movement bringing him salvation, it brought him condemnation, as the action was reportedly seen, as one more evidence that he cannot be trusted to keep to his political promises.
Strangely, despite the material and human resources at the disposal of the governor, Wike, has so far successfully isolated him in the scheme of state politics. Nearly all the big wigs in PDP, and even those in the APC, in the state, are in the same camp with Wike, including members of the state House of Assembly. Some people have attributed Fubara’s lack of influence and control, of any significant portion of the leaders of the parties in the state to his dedication to the interest of the people of Rivers State, instead of pandering to the interest of the party leaders in the state.
While that argument will appeal to the social media enthusiasts, it has failed to hand Fubara the ticket of either the APC or the PDP, in the state. Wike claimed in an interview that the governor accepted not to contest for the gubernatorial ticket of the party in exchange of the forbearance of the state House of Assembly, over the impeachment proceedings that was initiated against the governor. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu was reputed to have brokered the peace agreement between the members of the state House of Assembly and the governor.
Wike, further claimed that the governor tried to breach the terms of the agreement by buying the Expression of Interest Form and showing up for the screening exercise. So far, Fubara has resisted the pressure from some of his supporters to move over to the African Democratic Congress (ADC), or the National Democratic Congress (NDC), to contest the 2027 gubernatorial election. Some social media pundits have claimed that he can win in any of the parties and that PBAT will lose Rivers, if the governor is shut out from the election.
It remains to be seen whether Fubara will take the bait and enter into the contest through another party. While that can happen, it is clear that Fubara is a poor student of politics as defined by Lasswell. One can postulate that Fubara has failed to build his own coalition of elite enthusiasts in the more than three years he has been on the saddle as state governor. While it is easier to blame Wike for his predicaments, this writer thinks it is his grievous political mistakes that have destabilized him and made him, a lame duck.
There is the allegation that that he had a hand in the fire that engulfed the state House of Assembly at the height of the crisis between him and members of the assembly. If that is so, and he left trails to himself, how on earth can he not eat the humble pie? Again, in the case instituted by Speaker Martin Amaewhule and 26 other members of the Rivers State House of Assembly, the Supreme Court came down heavily on the governor thereby giving the highest judicial imprimatur as to the unconstitutionality of some of the actions of the governor.
By declaring the cycles of “legislative actions” by the four-man legislative gang that Fubara operated with, to pass budgets and obtain legislative approvals, the Supreme Court, put a nail on the political coffin of Fubara as such actions will easily constitute acts of gross misconduct, as envisaged by Section 188 of the 1999 Constitution (as amended), for which a governor can be removed from office. With the governor emasculated politically and legally, Wike’s Rainbow Coalition will continue to blossom. As Lasswell pontificated, what may upend the coalition will be the politics of who gets what, when and how.
