The politics of Ondo State is entering its endgame early. And the script is already written, if you know where to look.
After my last two pieces — “No Lotus for Governor Aiyedatiwa” and “How Governor Aiyedatiwa Happened in Ondo” — the pushback was predictable. There were media interventions designed to rewrite recent history, and WhatsApp messages calling the analysis “100 per cent correct.”
But one phone call mattered more. An elder statesman read “How Governor Aiyedatiwa Happened in Ondo” and called not to argue, but to illuminate. He pointed to the single thread holding the 2024 and 2028 calculations together: Pa Reuben Fasoranti.
Advertisement
—The Fasoranti Deal—
Here is what happened at the intersection of the 2024 election.
The late Governor Rotimi Akeredolu and his wife Betty did not want his deputy, Lucky Aiyedatiwa, to succeed him. Akeredolu reportedly lobbied fellow governors to prevail on President Bola Tinubu to block him. Tinubu obliged, and kept Aiyedatiwa at arm’s length.
Aiyedatiwa’s last card was Fasoranti after trying several other options to no avail. The Afenifere leader, revered by Tinubu, was reportedly flown in a private jet from Akure to Abuja. The pitch was simple: back Aiyedatiwa to complete Akeredolu’s term, on two conditions.
One: Aiyedatiwa would not seek a second term in 2028. Two: Power would rotate to Ondo Central in 2028.
Fasoranti, it is said, accepted partly to atone for stepping aside from the governorship in 1999. That ascetic, public-spirited DNA runs through his family. Aiyedatiwa, hedging his bets, positioned himself as “Option Two” — in case the Ondo Central project failed.
To seal it, Aiyedatiwa appointed Fasoranti’s son, Taiwo, as Secretary to the State Government, and backed his Senate ambition as a launchpad for 2028.
That was the deal that got Aiyedatiwa elected in 2024.
—BTO’s counter move—
Enter the Minister of Interior, Dr. (Olu)bunmi Tunji-Ojo — BTO.
Understanding that the real fight is for 2028, BTO moved first. He has effectively hijacked the APC structure in Ondo, shutting out Aiyedatiwa’s loyalists. The collateral damage was immediate: when the National Secretariat released National Assembly candidate lists, it was BTO’s slate that was adopted. Taiwo Fasoranti was among those shut out. And Aiyedatiwa reportedly wept in Abuja.
BTO and Aiyedatiwa
The message is clear: BTO is not waiting. He wants to neutralise any hurdle to his own governorship bid.
But there’s a problem. BTO is from Ondo North. The zone has produced governors before. The current deputy governor, Olayide Adelami, is also from Ondo North. By every principle of equity, rotation, and political arithmetic, Ondo North should step back in 2028.
—Why Ondo Central Must Be Next—
The case for Ondo Central in 2028 is not just political. It is moral, rational, and emotional.
1. Equity: Ondo Central, and specifically Akure with the largest voting bloc, has never produced a democratically elected governor.
2. The Pact: The Fasoranti understanding that delivered 2024 for Aiyedatiwa was predicated on rotation to Central in 2028.
3. The Elite Consensus: From Akure indigenes at home and in the Diaspora, the campaign has already started: ” Akure lo kan” meaning “It is Akure’s turn.”
As the elder statesman told me: “BTO should not rejoice yet. Ondo Central people will fight for this position because it is their turn. Men and women of goodwill will stand with them.”
—The Red Line—
This is where the red line is drawn.
If President Tinubu wins re-election and is in office in 2028, the Fasoranti deal will be activated. And when that happens, it will be neither Ondo South’s Aiyedatiwa — the “Option Two” — nor Ondo North’s BTO.
It will be Ondo Central. It will be Akure.
Aiyedatiwa appears to understand this. To his credit, he has kept faith with the commitment so far. BTO does not. And that is why he is restructuring the party now — to pre-empt a decision he knows is already baked into Ondo’s political covenant.
2028 is not about personalities. It is about principle, precedent, and power rotation.
Anything short of Ondo Central in 2028 will be a breach of that covenant. And in Ondo politics, covenants, once broken, have consequences.
The Red Line is here: Neither Aiyedatiwa. Neither BTO. Ondo Central, 2028.
In fact, both camps are courting the same risk: reducing each other to bystanders while President Tinubu imposes his own anointed candidate. Ondo remains the only South-West state where Tinubu has not personally selected, funded, and delivered a governor. Every other governor in the region bears his direct imprimatur. In Ondo, his support has so far been passive, not proprietary.
NOTE: Views expressed by contributors are strictly personal and not of Theliberationnews
