The succession battle is raging in Oyo, the Pacesetter state. Two days ago, the shape of the struggle became clearer than before as the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) became the ruling party.
The implication is that two parties – the All Progressives Congress (APC) and APM – are locked in a legitimate conflict over Agodi House, the seat of government. During the governorship election, candidates of other parties –
Accord, Labour Party (LP), African Democratic Congress (ADC), and Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) – may become onlookers watching from the sidelines.
If APC or APM wins or loses in 2027, it won’t be new. A pattern of alternation has existed in the state. From 1999 to 2003, the defunct Alliance for Democracy (AD) produced the late Alhaji Lam Adesina as governor. Between 2003 and 2011, power shifted to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which produced Governors Rashidi Ladoja, now the Olubadan of Ibadan, and Chief Adebayo Alao-Akala.
Also, from 2011 to 2019, APC produced Senator Abiola Ajimobi as governor. He handed over to Governor Seyi Makinde, whose two terms of eight years will expire next year.
While Makinde has successfully maintained a firm grip on power, the PDP slipped from his hands. But there are always alternative opportunities in a multi-party democracy.
The Oyo APM is a transmutation of the authentic party for the governor’s political objective; it is not the real deal. It is a conversion of the Makinde-led faction of the PDP. Majority of PDP members are taking refuge in the new party as a last resort. The goal is to secure a platform for the election. Makinde is giving his support to APC governorship, senatorial, House of Representatives and Assembly candidates by also fielding himself as a presidential flagbearer to show them that they are into the elections together. While he will not win the presidential poll, many of his candidates will win the lower layers of the general election.
The demarcation between APC and APM/PDP is thin. Due to recurrent alignments and realignments, Oyo politicians have always traversed the two parties and their branches – the Accord Party and the Social Democratic Party (SDP).
The odds against APM in Oyo are many. The change of identity is challenging. The transformation of the distressed state chapter of the PDP to APM has to be properly explained to its grassroots supporters.
Its prime mover, motivator and leader, Makinde, an electrical engineer, is now embarking on political engineering. To survive and remain relevant beyond 2027, he needs to install a successor. Makinde more or less enjoys the relevance of a national figure to the extent that he remains a member of the Nigerian Governors’ Forum (NGF). If his party is unable to retain Oyo as Chief Nyesom Wike did in Rivers State in 2023, he may become politically vulnerable without critical allies to lean on after exiting office.
Why Makinde rejected the entreaties for collaboration with the APC is confounding, given his previous support for the party as a principal member of the defiant Group of Five Governors (G5) that fought the 2023 PDP presidential candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, to a standstill during the last general election. All the governors who left the sinking PDP for APC automatically became state party leaders, having leverage over old party members, as dictated by the cherished convention of the ruling party.
But Makinde prefers to be his own man, in exercise of his right to personal autonomy and dignity. As the servant-leader of Oyo, he cannot be written off by the people he has served in the last seven years. An objective analysis of his administration shows that he has an impressive scorecard across the critical sectors. His infrastructural projects across the state endeared him to the people. The road projects would remain reference points in the state for a long time.
However, as experience has shown, excellent performance, while being a core factor, may suddenly become insufficient. It may pale into insignificance in the face of other intervening variables, including zoning, the personality of the candidate and his acceptability by the diverse zones, the clash of federal might and state incumbency power, the Ibadan factor and other exigencies.
Makinde is working hard to implement a succession plan, conscious of the indisputable fact that his predecessor, Ajimobi, who was also an outstanding governor with a good record of performance, failed to hand over to his anointed successor. Ajimobi, a charismatic and affable character, lost the control of Oyo politics to poor strategy, overconfidence, faulty permutations and haughtiness. Since then, the party has not fully recovered.
Power shifted from the APC to the PDP in 2019 in Oyo. The PDP also retained power in 2023. But little did Makinde and his followers guess that the party would ebb away towards the expiration of his second term.
While the governor is determined to hand over to a preferred successor, the leaders of the main opposition party, the APC, are trying to return to the drawing board to map out an effective strategy to ease the ruling party out of power. But APC, for now, appears to be moving at a snail’s pace in its bid to recapture power. The bitter contest for the governorship ticket is tearing apart the fold that appears like a sheep without a shepherd.
Currently, APM is more focused than its rivals. Being wary of the foe next door that is trying to snatch power from its hands, the chapter is in one accord over the choice of the governorship candidate, Bimbo Adekanmbi, a financial expert.
Adekanmbi came into the limelight when he was appointed Ajimobi administration’s Finance Commissioner. On that note, he became a politician. In 2023, he contested the Oyo South senatorial seat on the platform of the APC. That ambition did not see the light of day.
Being a fluid political environment, Oyo, like many other states, is characterised by easy alliance shifts and unstable partisan habits. Also, it is argued that in recognition of talents, governors often reach out to competent people on the other sides of the divide to make patriotic contributions to state development. Thus, on July 30, 2024, Makinde appointed Adekanmbi as the chairman of the 11-member committee overseeing the upgrade of the Samuel Ladoke Akintola Airport in Ibadan — a high-profile infrastructure assignment.
Adekanmbi is from Ibadan, the bullish state capital also reputed for political muscle-flexing, and cradle of struggling and antagonistic governorship aspirants working at cross-purposes on the platform of the divided APC chapter. His chances are bright if the acrimony and division in APC continue, and its national leadership fails to reconcile the warring camps revolving around Penkelemesi/Ajimobi, Folarin, and Ali/Oseni. That the majority of the contenders are from the ancient city confirms its dominance and its disdain for rotation among the ethnic zones in the spirit of equity, fairness and justice.
The APC gladiators in the race are Senator Sharafadeen Alli, former Power Minister Adebayo Adelabu, former Senate Leader Teslim Folarin, Senator Fatai Buhari from Ogbomoso, and Muyiwa Gbadegesin from Oke Ogun. There is no agreement among them yet on the proposed consensus candidacy, although the party is swinging the pendulum towards the direction of Alli.
Adelabu, unlike his charming and influential grandfather, the late Alhaji Adegoke Adelabu, a man of populist persuasion, is not able to draw the majority to his side. He forges ahead with his supporters despite the predictable hurdles on his path. Adelabu is being blackmailed for the poor performance of his heady ministry, and, obviously, the palace is not with him.
Fanatical supporters of Folarin, who defected from the PDP to the APC a long time ago, complain about marginalisation and alienation in the consultations that culminated in consensus. While reality has dawned on them about their principal’s slim prospect at the shadow poll, an aggrieved Adebayo, who is off the consensus radar, is reaching out to the former Senate Leader.
Buhari is not desperate, but it is injurious to his people that Ibadan is most likely to keep the governorship seat for an unbroken 16 years. This is the fruit of its numerical superiority in Oyo State. A tap has to be kept on Folarin, whose supporters are complaining about seclusion, to avoid giving support to the APM or any other opposition candidate during the governorship poll.
Alli is like a fugitive high chief trying to evade an inexplicable crown. He has the support of Olubadan Ladoja, who was a prominent politician before ascending the prestigious throne last year. If consensus fails and a direct primary has to be held, he needs to work hard.
Whether he becomes the candidate through consensus or via a direct primary, he still needs to work harder, initiate reconciliation with his rivals, sincerely make a pact with them, which he will honour after winning and ensure a united and cohesive APC in Oyo State.
Many factors will shape the contest between Alli, if he becomes the APC candidate, and Adekanmbi. Ibadan is a factor. Since they hail from the city, it is a leveller.
The most important question is: who will Ibadan prefer between the APC and APM candidates? Another question is: if they share the Ibadan votes, which of the zones or sub-zones – Ogbomoso, Oyo and Oke-Ogun – will give either or them an edge?
