By Femi Orebe
For those who may not already be conversant with the article in focus today, which appeared on these pages on 15 September, 2024 let me begin by reproducing its introductory portion. It reads as follows:
“Northern Nigeria situation today – economic, security, climate, name it, is analogous to the post World War 11 situation in Europe when the U.S, “fearing that the poverty, unemployment, and dislocation occasioned by the war were aggressively reinforcing the appeal of communist parties to voters in western Europe”, that something just had to be done. That was what finally eventuated in the much celebrated Marshall Plan.
If the security situation in Northern Nigeria fails to point, unambiguously, to the urgent need for something urgent to be done to rectify the situation, the horrendous consequences of the Alua Dam disaster in Borno state, should.
Enough is now enough. Northern Nigeria urgently needs a Marshall Plan to restore it back to its glorious Sadauna days of no serial bloodletting.
And for the sake of our country’s long-term survival, and for us to live in peace, and avoid attracting the attention of the international community the way countries like
Afghanistan, Yemen and Syria – the 3 most insecure countries in the world according to the Global Peace Index (GPI 2024) do, then our restive North must be restored back to its pre-Boko-Haram and banditry days.
This is neither intended to stigmatise the North, nor to suggest that we can easily overlook what horror terrorism and economic deprivation have spurned in the South”.
The article has since attracted some attention, if not in government circles or amongst Northern leaders, two groups that should, ordinarily, have been very concerned, then certainly among intellectuals, some of who see the suggestion as something outside the remit of the Federal government which I hard sort of indicated should take the lead in what I considered an urgent desideratum.
Before I come to their argument, however, a new, very agonising issue emerged, no thanks to a WhatsApp post which trended during the past week.
The post, which had a narrator who is of Northern extraction, showed in Kano, a huge collection of very little girls – call them children – clustered together, begging bowls in hand, some joking and some fighting, with no parents or elderly ones in sight, with the commentator repeatedly drawing attention to their young ages, their huge numbers and emphasising what a future ticking bomb they represent for a Nigeria already shackled down by insecurity.
No serious government, qua government, state or local, or leaders with any conscience, at all, should be able to turn a blind eye to this macabre phenomenon.
The North must now necessarily turn attention to what is nothing short of a future consuming fire.
To the main focus of this piece then, that is: reaction to the idea of a Marshall Plan for Northern Nigeria.
I have for company, a distinguished, highly regarded retired Ambassador, and an equally distinguished University Professor, both of whom will remain nameless, but would be quoted verbatim at some length. Both are gentlemen I routinely, send my weekly articles.
It was Prof who reacted first. He commented as follows: “Uncle, good evening. It’s been a while since we chatted. I guess the situation in the country is making it increasingly difficult to keep one’s sanity.
I just read your very interesting article. Now my questions regarding the situation in the North which is, of course, creeping down south, are these:
Who will bell the cat? Who will take the responsibility of turning things around in Northern Nigeria?
All these pretty talk from Elders’ forums, Governor’s forums and many other fakes, are just mere talk.
They never seem to care. So, how do we get out of this mess?
After I waded in with a short reply, he riposted: “We should know that banditry and attendant insecurity has become an industry. Some people benefit from it and those beneficiaries are the ones propping it up.
Look at the video you sent to me where someone was asking for a right of way for some fulani terrorists.
The unanswered question is – Who are those Fulani? What is their mission? On whose orders?
Addressing the moral crisis in Northern Nigeria
It is time for a Marshall plan for Northern Nigeria
President Tinubu is being frustrated all round, even by his own men. So the problem remains fluid and intractable. The hardship is not letting up and Nigerians blame him”.
The Ambassador was direct. He wrote: Who will finance such a Marshall Plan for the North? Foreign agencies or local? Yes, there is a need for a massive investment in human development in the North. But the challenge is not limited to lack of financial resources but the existing social and economic structure which makes its people so poor. A Marshall Plan will have to be complemented by a re-engineering of its social structure to make it more conducive to a rapid transition to a liberal and progressive society . But will Northern leaders, with the huge privileges they currently enjoy, support this transformation?
I doubt it.
To his comments, I replied.
Thank you Sir.
There are ‘zillions’ of billionaires and millionaires in the North, mostly the result of thefts from the poor over many decades, if not a century. If Nigerians have to blackmail them, then they will.
Indeed, if the President gets seriously involved, as I guess he would, a percentage of Nigeria’s annual revenue, over say a period of 10 years, or thereabout, can be factored into contributing to it, by an act of Parliament. This is because North’s failure will occasion horrendous consequences for the country, if only because our Northern border is so huge, and porous, that insecurity in Nigeria could become absolutely unimaginable.
To this the Ambassador replied: “Are you seriously suggesting that the North should be given a special treatment, or privilege, by giving it a financial subsidy from the national revenue?”
Personally, I saw nothing wrong in that. So I responded: “Sir, this is the way these things work. We started with NDDC, today almost every region has got a development commission. If we have to start from the North because of the insecurity which I already expatiated on, we would only first be priotising the North for such an intervention.
Varieties of that could then be started later in other parts of the country.
The Ambassador, a highly principled diplomat, who served in many grade A embassies during his checkered service to the country countered:
“Such a plan should be a national, not a regional intervention. For far too long the North has received all kinds of privileges and preferences without any significant progress due to its rigid social structure and leadership deficit”.
Short and sharp.
I then replied: “Very rational argument Sir. But do all parts of Nigeria constitute the same level of risk? With utmost respect, I say not at all. And I can’t see what we would lose. In deed, we will lose much more in these parts, if Nigeria happens to unravel.
And to this he replied: “If you think this will save Nigeria from unraveling then you support it. But I am not sure it will”.
And as is the norm in arguments with elders in Yoruba custom, I humbly replied:
I concur Sir.
Concluding, in deciding one way or the other on the reasonableness, or otherwise, of a Marshall Plan which will help in enhancing security in that part of Nigeria, I think it is important to factor in the recent confession of the Chief of Army Staff (COAS), Lieutenant General Taoreed Lagbaja, at the 2024 Distinguished Personality Lecture, which can safely be interpreted as saying that Nigeria may never have enough resources to adequately protect our extensive Northern border with the highly volatile sahelian countries through only annual budgetary provisions which are, in fact, hardly ever fully released.
According to the COAS, “in a country with over 200 million people, it is unrealistic for security agencies totalling around two million, including an Army of just over 100,000 active personnel, without a reserve force, to secure the entire population”.
Expatiating further, he added that “the significant gap in resources is being exploited by criminal elements and to address the issue, it is crucial to invest in expanding and strengthening security forces, ensuring they have adequate personnel and resources”.
This, in my view, ipso facto, means that a Marshall Plan for the North, to which several entities would generously contribute, cannot be anything else but rational and reasonable.
Culled from The Nation