Nigeria’s economy is expected to expand by 4.3 per cent in 2026, with growth projected to average 4.4 per cent between 2027 and 2028, according to the World Bank.
The forecast was presented in the World Bank’s latest Nigeria Development Update (NDU), released in Abuja. The institution said sustained government reforms could help reduce inflation and poverty while supporting stronger economic performance.
“Economic activity in Nigeria is projected to strengthen from 4.0 per cent in 2025 to 4.3 per cent in 2026, before edging up to 4.4 per cent annually in 2027-28,” the Bank said.
The World Bank identified major policy changes, including the removal of petrol subsidies and the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market, as key factors supporting Nigeria’s positive outlook. It urged the government to maintain these measures to secure their full benefits over time.
The reforms remain controversial, particularly the removal of petrol subsidies. The issue has fuelled public debate, with some presidential candidates promising to restore the subsidy if elected in next year’s general elections.
Despite these concerns, the Bank’s projections point to continued expansion. Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.2 per cent in the first half of 2026, compared with 3.9 per cent in the same period of 2025. According to the report, the services and agriculture sectors were the main drivers of this growth.
Inflation is also expected to ease. The World Bank projected that the rate could fall to around 12 per cent by 2028, from approximately 15 per cent currently. A sustained decline would offer relief to households and businesses facing high living costs.
The Bank also noted that sub-Saharan Africa has shown resilience despite several challenges, including geopolitical tensions, climate-related shocks, declining development assistance, and pressure on government finances.
Within Nigeria, state governments have recorded a substantial rise in revenue. The World Bank reported that state revenues increased by about 93 per cent in real terms between 2023 and 2025.
However, the institution stressed that higher revenue alone will not guarantee better living conditions. It called on state governments to improve spending efficiency and direct more resources toward human capital development, including investments that can improve well-being and reduce poverty.
The World Bank’s assessment suggests that Nigeria’s ability to sustain growth will depend not only on national policy reforms but also on how effectively federal and state governments use public funds.
Speaking at the event, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, described the growth forecast as evidence that the administration’s reforms are beginning to deliver results.
Oyedele said the economy is now growing faster than the population, a trend he argued could contribute to poverty reduction over time.
He also called on Nigerians to support the reforms, maintaining that the government’s decisions are in the country’s long-term economic interest.
The World Bank’s forecast offers a positive outlook, but the projected gains will depend on whether the government maintains its policies and translates stronger economic activity into improved living standards.
While higher growth and lower inflation could support households and businesses, the broader impact will depend on job creation, effective public spending, and the ability of federal and state authorities to ensure that economic progress benefits more Nigerians.
