Lagos Is Not a Political Inheritance; 2023 Nostalgia Won’t Win 2027
The National Democratic Congress (NDC) and its political gladiators are entitled to their optimism, but their latest proclamation that Peter Obi will defeat President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in Lagos by a wider margin in 2027 sounds less like political strategy and more like wishful thinking dressed up as certainty.
The NDC’s National Publicity Secretary, Osa Director, has reportedly challenged the APC to “take that to the bank,” insisting that Obi’s 2023 victory in Lagos was a political reality and that he would win by a wider margin in 2027.
My response is simple:
The NDC gladiators should wake up. 2027 is not 2023.
Peter Obi’s 2023 performance in Lagos was a legitimate electoral outcome. INEC’s figures show that he polled 582,454 votes against Bola Tinubu’s 572,606-a difference of 9,848 votes. Obi won nine of Lagos’ 20 local government areas, while Tinubu won 11.
Nobody is disputing the figures.
But what the NDC must stop doing is converting one electoral outcome into a permanent political inheritance.
Lagos does not belong to Peter Obi. Lagos does not belong to APC either. Lagos belongs to Lagosians.
And Lagosians will make their choice when the time comes.
What is particularly amusing is the confidence with which the NDC is already distributing certificates of victory for an election that has not taken place.
Perhaps the NDC has discovered a new electoral technology: counting votes before they are cast!
But elections are not won by press statements, hashtags, social-media excitement or political bravado. They are won through credible candidates, organisation, persuasion, issues, mobilisation and, ultimately, the votes of citizens.
OBI HAS BEEN SUBJECTED TO THE HARDER TEST OF SCRUTINY
The NDC should also understand that Peter Obi is no longer the largely untested political phenomenon that emerged from the 2023 campaign.
Four years of public scrutiny have changed the conversation.
A number of claims attributed to Obi or circulated in his political ecosystem have subsequently been subjected to independent fact-checking, with some found to be false, unsupported or misleading. Africa Check, for example, has recently debunked some claims attributed to Obi and has separately documented misinformation surrounding his political activities.
So when the NDC talks about repeating 2023 and widening Obi’s margin, it should remember that the electorate has also had four years to interrogate the messenger, the message and the mythology.
The Peter Obi phenomenon has moved from the intoxicating atmosphere of campaign rallies and social-media enthusiasm into the much harsher territory of accountability.
The man has been demystified by scrutiny.
The Nigerian public is now asking harder questions about policies, numbers, economic prescriptions, governance experience, political alliances and the credibility of claims made on the campaign trail.
That is what democracy is about.
THE #ENDSARS ATMOSPHERE IS NOT A CAMPAIGN STRATEGY
The NDC should equally resist the temptation to assume that the political atmosphere of 2023 can simply be recreated in 2027.
There is no basis for assuming that the intense youth mobilisation and street politics surrounding the #EndSARS era can be mechanically converted into an electoral machine for Peter Obi.
Nor should any serious political movement build its strategy around the expectation of renewed social unrest or youth restiveness.
Anger is not a manifesto. Protest is not governance. A hashtag is not a development plan.
The Nigerian youth deserve something considerably more substantial than being treated as an electoral instrument.
They deserve jobs, enterprise, education, skills, security, infrastructure and an economy that gives them a stake in the future.
AND THE ETHNIC AND RELIGIOUS CARDS?
As for the attempt to reduce Lagos politics to ethnicity and religion, the NDC should perhaps retire that strategy.
Lagos is one of the most cosmopolitan societies in Africa.
Its people have built businesses together, married across ethnic lines, worshipped together, worked together and created communities that transcend simplistic ethnic and religious calculations.
Lagosians are far too sophisticated to have their votes permanently programmed along ethnic or religious lines.
Those cards may generate noise. They do not automatically generate votes.
The NDC should therefore come with something more compelling than identity politics, grievance politics and recycled 2023 nostalgia.
LAGOS WILL ASK: WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR US?
The real question in 2027 will be much more uncomfortable for political actors who prefer propaganda to accountability:
What exactly have you contributed to Lagos?
What have you done to support its economic growth?
What have you done to protect its interests?
What have you done to strengthen its institutions?
What have you done to improve the lives of its people?
And when Lagos was being transformed through successive administrations, where exactly did you stand?
These are questions that cannot be answered with “Obi will win by a wider margin.”
They require records.
They require facts.
They require evidence.
LAGOS HAS A MEMORY
Lagos has a long political memory.
It remembers those who have worked for its development.
It remembers those who have defended its interests.
It remembers those who have contributed to its progress.
And it also remembers those who have consistently appeared more interested in denigrating Lagos than in contributing meaningfully to its advancement.
The 2027 election will therefore provide Lagosians with another opportunity to examine the records, positions, conduct and contributions of all political actors.
If some political actors have openly displayed disdain for Lagos and its progress, they should not be surprised if Lagosians take that conduct into consideration when making their democratic choices.
You cannot spend years insulting a city and suddenly arrive at election time demanding its votes as though nothing happened.
NDC SHOULD STOP COUNTING CHICKENS BEFORE THE EGGS ARE LAID
The NDC says Obi will win Lagos by a wider margin.
Fine.
Let them campaign.
Let them present their candidate.
Let them explain their policies.
Let them defend their record.
Let them persuade Lagosians.
And let Lagosians decide.
But until the ballots are cast and officially counted, the NDC’s “wider margin” exists only in its imagination.
The 2023 election produced its result. The 2027 election will produce its own.
No political party owns the Lagos electorate. No candidate owns Lagos. No movement owns Lagos.
And certainly, no opposition party can win Lagos merely by declaring that it has already won it.
So, to the NDC gladiators shouting “wider margin”:
Easy does it.
The 2027 election is not a rerun of 2023.
The old slogans have been tested.
The political mythology has been scrutinised.
The electorate has become more discerning.
And Lagos is watching.
