The outcome of the Osun State gubernatorial election may have generated understandable excitement within the opposition camp, but it would be a serious political miscalculation to interpret one state election as a dress rehearsal for what awaits Nigeria in 2027.
Elections are won constituency by constituency, state by state, candidate by candidate and, ultimately, through the ability to convince voters that a particular political platform deserves their mandate. Osun is Osun. Nigeria is Nigeria. The circumstances, candidates, issues, alliances and voter calculations in a gubernatorial election cannot simply be photocopied and presented as a template for a presidential election.
The opposition would therefore do well to celebrate its victory without prematurely converting it into a prophecy.
There is nothing wrong with political optimism. Indeed, every political party needs optimism, confidence and the conviction that victory is possible. What is dangerous is allowing optimism to mutate into entitlement. The 2027 presidential election will not be determined by political arithmetic conducted in the aftermath of a single state election.
The opposition’s attempt to portray the Osun result as evidence of an inevitable 2027 earthquake also overlooks one fundamental reality: there is nothing in democracy called the invincibility of the ruling party. But, by the same token, there is also nothing in democracy called the inevitability of the opposition.
The All Progressives Congress must never take victory for granted, just as the opposition must not take advantage of an electoral victory in one state to assume that Nigerians have already made a national decision.
The Osun election should instead be treated as a reminder that democracy remains competitive and that voters retain the ultimate power to surprise political establishments.
That lesson should be welcomed by everyone.
For the APC, it is a reminder that incumbency is not a substitute for performance, grassroots engagement, credible candidates, internal cohesion and effective communication. Every election must be fought as though nothing has been won. Every voter must be respected. Every constituency must be engaged. Every legitimate concern must be addressed.
But for the opposition, the same result should inspire humility rather than triumphalism.
A gubernatorial election is inherently different from a presidential contest. State elections are heavily influenced by local personalities, state-specific issues, existing political structures, local alliances and the performance or popularity of individual candidates. A presidential election introduces a vastly broader national conversation involving the economy, security, infrastructure, foreign relations, national leadership, federal institutions and the competing visions of presidential candidates.
Consequently, extrapolating directly from Osun to Abuja is politically convenient but analytically weak.
The opposition also has another challenge to confront: coalition politics is easier to announce than to sustain.
It is one thing for opposition politicians to assemble under the banner of defeating the APC. It is another thing entirely to harmonise ambitions, ideology, personalities, structures and regional interests sufficiently to persuade millions of Nigerians that the coalition represents a coherent alternative rather than an alliance of convenience.
The performance-or, in one case, the absence-of the major opposition parties is particularly instructive. The ADC, which has positioned itself as a major platform in the emerging opposition coalition, could only muster a paltry 17,180 votes in Osun. Even more tellingly, the NDC did not field a candidate at all in the governorship election. One cannot but wonder where the much-advertised opposition momentum and electoral strength lie as we count down to 2027. If Osun is anything to go by, the much-touted strength of the opposition may, at best, be largely imaginary or, at the very least, overtly overrated. Political expectations are one thing; demonstrated electoral strength is quite another.
Nigerian voters are becoming increasingly sophisticated. They will not merely ask, “Who is against the APC?” They will ask, “Who is for Nigeria?” They will demand to know the economic programme, security strategy, federalism policy, youth agenda, infrastructure plan and governance philosophy of whoever seeks their votes.
Opposition parties therefore have a great deal of work to do beyond celebrating Osun.
They must tell Nigerians what they intend to do differently, how they intend to do it and why Nigerians should trust them to do it.
A state-by-state analysis of the forthcoming elections does not, by any stretch of the imagination, give the opposition sufficient reason to be incurably optimistic or to dance itself lame before D-Day. Electoral politics is far too fluid to justify such premature celebrations. Political fortunes can change, alliances can shift, candidates can rise or fall, and voters can spring surprises when the ballot is finally cast.
The best advice to the opposition is therefore simple: wake up, roll up your sleeves and get to work. Earn the trust of the electorate. Build credible structures. Present compelling candidates. Offer Nigerians a coherent alternative and convince them that the opposition has something substantially better to offer.
Otherwise, what looks today like a dream of 2027 victory could very easily become a nightmare on election night.
The APC, on its part, must equally recognise that the political environment cannot be approached with complacency. The Renewed Hope administration must continue to communicate its policies more effectively, deliver tangible improvements in the lives of Nigerians and deepen its engagement with the people.
The Tinubu administration has inherited a difficult national environment, and the argument for continuity in 2027 cannot rest solely on what the government says it is doing. It must increasingly be anchored on what Nigerians can see, feel and experience.
That is where the real political contest will be.
The opposition may have won a battle in Osun, but 2027 is an entirely different contest. Between now and then, economic conditions may change, political alliances will evolve, candidates will emerge, policies will be tested, and voters will make their own independent judgments.
Indeed, the greatest mistake any political party can make in a democracy is to confuse momentum with destiny.
The Osun result has demonstrated that the ballot box remains powerful. It has reminded the ruling party that no electoral victory is permanent and that political dominance must continually be earned. It has equally reminded the opposition that victory is possible.
But possibility is not inevitability.
The 2027 election will ultimately be decided by Nigerians, not by political commentators, social-media projections, opinion polls or the enthusiasm generated by a single gubernatorial victory.
For the APC, the message should be clear: no complacency, no entitlement and no taking voters for granted.
For the opposition, the message is equally clear: Osun is a victory to celebrate, not a national mandate to pre-empt.
This is no dress rehearsal for 2027.
There is only the real election.
And when that election comes, Nigerians-not political parties-will have the final word.
NOTE: Views expressed by contributors are strictly personal and not of Theliberationnews.
