Certain presidential candidates are bent on drawing Nigeria backward, if they are elected in next year’s election. They lack convincing manifesto worthy of attention. It is up to the electorate to allow or disallow them from reversing the gains of the last three and half years.
How far has President Bola Ahmed Tinubu redeemed his 2023 campaign promises to the nation? What has he not done well that the rivals would like to do better? Also, what are the areas where they hope to break new grounds? These are what Nigerians expect from the opposition arrowheads.
What would be captivating to the electorate in this part of the world is not the outdated issues of certificate, National Youth Service Corps (NYSC), name spelling and name arrangement on the nomination forms submitted to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
Instead of raising fundamental issues, opposition figures are embarking on shadow chasing, trying to reopen already decided issues that have no bearing with the election. They are not innovative and so far, what they are propping up are non-issues that can hardly shape voting behaviour.
It is curious that opponents are seeking the probe of the certificate of the model governor of Lagos between 1999 and 2007 who saved them from political liquidation when they were derobed and systematically sent packing from their political party in 2006. It is strange that they are asking the court to vet the credentials of a leader who is about to complete his first term; a leader who is enjoying overwhelming endorsement for a second term.
Opposition candidates are in disarray. But they are desperate for obvious reasons. The 80-year old flag bearer, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) sees 2027 as probably his last chance. Wining is critical to self-actualisation. Next year, he will be on the fast lane to 81. Therefore, he is deploying all the resources at his disposal to the preparations for the titanic battle. By 2031, he will be 85, and interest may wane. Also, more vibrant actors would have come to the scene.
The second opposition candidate, Peter Obi who has been offered a refuge in the Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC) by countryman Senator Seriake Dickson is not less desperate. At 65, he is no more the toast of some restless youths who uncritically saw him as an idol four years ago. They have crossed teenage years to late adolescence, acquiring new experience, knowledge, skill, understanding and exposure as they grew up.
Two factors -religion and ethnicity – seemed to have counted for Obi then. Today, Nigerians believe that the Muslim/Muslim ticket is harmless and cannot be exploited as a weapon of blackmail. Next year, he will be 66, and he knows that a second term for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu would translate into the ceiling of his presidential ambition. By 2031, he will be a nonagenarian. There is zoning. Although it is not spelt out in the Constitution, the convention cannot be ignored. Thus, if the President is re-elected, power would automatically rotate to the North, thereby knocking out Obi.
If the two candidates come together, how would they share power? Atiku cannot be running mate to Obi, but he can make a sacrifice by collapsing his structure into Obi’s structure and nominate a running mate. It is a hard option. It would mean the collapse of over 34 year-old dream of ruling the country.
But if Atiku agrees to do that, the two Southern candidates – Asiwaju Tinubu, a Muslim, and the former Anambra State governor, a Christian – will scramble for the votes of the Muslim-dominated North. How would Atiku, who will then not be on the ballot, be the campaign manager for Obi, who abandoned him after the 2019 election? How would he be able to convince his supporters who would definitely be demoralised to queue behind his former running mate who deserted him and challenged him to a due four years later?
Although Obi has dangled the carrot of one term, the North is too politically sophisticated to swallow the deceit. Leading lights in the vast region will recall two events that were detrimental to their interest in the past. The first was the alleged third term by a Southerner, President Olusegun Obasanjo, which flopped. The second was the refusal of another president from the South, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, to step down in 2015 for a Northerner, in view of the fact that the amiable president from the zone, Alhaji Umaru Yar’Adua, died in office, barely two years after settling down for governance.
Would the North therefore, not prefer to support Asiwaju for another term when it is certain that power will inevitably rotate to the region in 2031? Would the North reject certainty for uncertainty?
If Obi agrees to step down for Atiku, which is most unlikely, what would be the reaction of his fanatical supporters – the social media warriors – who operate under the ‘structureless’ Obedient Movement?
Obi has been running from pillar to post since 2015, traversing the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP) and ADC for ticket before a party in want of a flag bearer, the Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC), came in handy.
He has projected himself as the face of a regional agitation for power. But the approach has implications. If a candidate exclusively leans on a tribal pillar, other ethnic groups may feel alienated. Also, if a flag bearer leans on his religion, members of other faiths may harbour a feeling of exclusion. As potent as the two factors of religion and ethnicity are, they can also herald a downfall or a setback. Indeed, that ethnic factor would be subjected to further test in 2027 in a region where Chukwuma Soludo, Peter Mbah and Hope Uzodinma are working hard to make some points after their realignment with the ruling party at the centre.
If Obi becomes the running mate, it is back to square one. That was his status and attainment in 2019 which did not take him anywhere. How would he rationalise his decision to play the second fiddle or serve as a spare tyre?
If Atiku and Obi back out of the race and team up to support another opposition candidate, it may be a wasted effort. There would be a vacuum in the opposition front. Other opposition candidates are largely unpopular and not formidable. They merely warm the INEC register.
If Atiku goes solo when the proposed gang up of a hundred adversaries fails, he may not move beyond his 2023 point. If Obi proceeds with alliance or coalition, he too cannot improve on his previous score. Ahead of 2027, the odds do favour any of them.
Public intellectuals are trying to come to the aid of the opposition candidates by highlighting serious campaign issues. Apart from fuel subsidy, which Atiku is trying to wield as a weapon of intimidation, they also allude to other factors: power, education, health, infrastructural development, and the resolution of the national question, particularly devolution, local government autonony and state politics. If President Tinubu is objectively assessed based on these criteria, his government will attract a passmark.
Indeed, fuel subsidy removal is a core campaign issue. It has remained on the front burner in the last three years.
But whoever advised Wazirin Adamawa to propose the reversal of the fuel subsidy removal has neither done his campaign and the country any good. It pales into a bad campaign strategy that casts doubt on his experience as an economic administrator and statesman.
Atiku had told the nation when he was the PDP candidate in 2023 that subsidy was bad and should be discarded. His counterpart in the Labour Party (LP), Obi, also agreed that the policy that enriched the few and put burden on the generality of Nigerians was illogical and unreasonable.
Atiku’s u-turn has attracted a perception of inconsistency, with the various segments, including the organised labour, academia, industry players, and political class, doubting his motivation, sincerity, competence and fitness to rule. It is because the subsidy removal policy which he seeks to halt has not failed.
Although he had insisted that the policy should be reversed, the ADC candidate has closed his eyes to the consequences. Even, media aide disagreed with him on the matter.
Ahead of 2023 polls, the country was on clutches. Fuel scarcity, complaints about non-payment of salaries by governors and recourse to ‘ways and means’ by the Federal Government reflected the awful picture of a deteriorated economy.
Confronted with these challenges, former President Muhammadu Buhari removed subsidy. President Tinubu who succeeded him inherited a budget devoid of the subsidy item. He merely echoed what his predecessor did by telling Nigerians during his inauguration at Eagle Square, Abuja, that ‘subsidy is gone.”
It was a step in the right direction, although the saboteours kicked against the reform. Since the loophole was blocked, Nigeria had generated ₦15.8 trillion in revenue savings from the removal and the accompaying foreign exchange reforms, which were shared among the three tiers of government through the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC).
Restoring fuel subsidy therefore, means regressing to the era of want, inadequate resources for meeting obligations, irregular salary payment across states, strikes in the tertiary institutions, infrastructural decay, student drop out, and collapsing health sector…..
NOTE: Views expressed by contributors are strictly personal and not of Theliberationnews
