Battle For Osun – By Emmanuel Oladesu

Attention is shifting to Osun State, where political parties are expected to conduct governorship primaries next month to produce their candidates for next year’s poll.

Four parties are effectively in the race to produce the governor: the highly polarised and decimated Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the All Progressives Congress (APC), where no fewer than eight aspirants are battling to get the ticket, the uproarious African Democratic Congress (ADC) that is tearing itself down with intra-party conflicts, and the Accord (A), which the “partyless” governor may adopt as an emergency platform.

In Osun, the PDP has lost power without an election or a coup. Governor Ademola Adeleke stepped aside from the party, which his supporters described as a sinking ship. He is said to be on his way to the Accord, as previously speculated. It is a way of rescuing himself from the disaster the PDP brought on itself.

The main opposition party is facing a worsening crisis. Its national leadership is gasping for breath to swim out of the ocean of disputes within. The party’s top hierarchy is a subject of litigation in the court. This is the fallout of the acrimonious presidential convention of 2022, which threw up Atiku Abubakar as the presidential candidate for the 2023 poll.

Since then, the party’s centre has been falling apart, and nothing appears potent enough to fasten it up. It is being decimated daily by the gale of high-profile defections. The party, which occupied Aso Villa for 16 years, is experiencing an accelerated diminishing returns never envisaged by its founding fathers.

The majority of PDP members are with Ede-born Governor Adeleke in his search for a new platform. That he is seeking refuge in a borrowed platform is discomforting and demoralising. Despite the turn of events, the PDP remains a brand. It needs no introduction, even if its structures are now distressed. Adeleke is not a seasoned politician, like his illustrious brother, “Serubawon” Isiaka Adeleke, although he has achieved the double accomplishments of becoming a senator and governor, like the deceased. But Ademola never imagined being entrusted with the huge political responsibilities, which his limited education and exposure never prepared him for. He danced his way into the National Assembly and the Bola Ige House in Osogbo, the seat of Osun State government, to the envy of seasoned actors who could not make it to those levels.

Now, Adeleke faces a novel test of leadership, a brewing challenge he never anticipated. This is the challenge of nurturing any mushroom party he may adopt into prominence and wider acceptability.

His exit from the PDP underscores his battle for survival. He faces a major election next year and the hurdles are real, although he wields an incumbency power. But he was not influential enough to wield that power of incumbency to prevail on three Osun PDP senators from defecting to the APC months ago. How formidable is also the incumbency factor that made “Ade Dancer” to apply to the APC for defection?

Since his request to join APC was turned down, much ego has been deflated, and subsequent partisan moves were laced with tension. Neither could the governor rescind his decision to campaign for the APC ahead of the 2027 presidential poll nor withdraw his statement of support for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election bid.

Yet, it was dangerous to stay on in PDP, now polarised into two factions that are preparing for renewed legal fireworks in court next week.

Adeleke does not openly belong to either of the factions. Also, he lacks the capacity to broker reconciliation. He never participated in the Adamasingba picnics. He is also not seen around the man the late Ondo State Governor Rotimi Akeredolu called ‘wicked Wike’, the acclaimed PDP albatross.

No doubt, Adeleke’s exit from the PDP has created a vacuum, and nature abhors a vacuum. Thus, during the week, Adedamola Adedayo, a lowly party chieftain, became the governorship candidate of the former ruling party that instantly became a toothless bulldog. It means that not all the chieftains subscribe to Adeleke’s defection project.

The PDP flagbearer is said to be enjoying the backing of Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde, although he is largely perceived as a placeholder. Many Osun PDP stalwarts who objected to Makinde’s overtures in Osun State accuse him of nursing a territorial expansionist agenda. Predictably, the flagbearer would merely appear as a venerable spectator on poll day. No other PDP governor would like to invest in his candidature.

Adeleke will fly the ticket of any party he finally adopts. Nobody really bothers about his scorecard. He looks formidable, not for his dancing steps but because of the circumstances that brought him to power.

Zoning is key in the State of Living Springs; this is why the parties are looking in the direction of Osun West.

The zone, particularly Ede, is the stronghold of the governor. Its population is huge. Besides Adeleke’s incumbency power, he has a deep purse, courtesy of his wealthy family, which is ready to again bankroll the second term project. When the campaign train rolls into town, even his nephew, eminent musician David (Davido) Adeleke, may be a major anchor.

But the governor can be stopped if the APC assembles a formidable team. This time calls for unity and sacrifice, as demonstrated by the Marine and Blue Economy Minister Gboyega Oyetola, who declined the urge to throw his hat into the ring.

APC aspirants include Kunle Adegoke, a legal luminary; Senator Ajibola Basiru, Doctor of Law and promising National Secretary of the party; Senator Iyioola Omisore, a former deputy governor and rugged predecessor of Basiru at the national office; Benefict Alabi, the immediate past deputy governor; Senator Babajide Omoworare, a former presidential aide; Senator Mudashiru Hussein; Dotun Babayemi, a popular lawyer and defector from the PDP, and Bola Oyebamiji, a financial expert and former finance commissioner, who is likely to get the ticket if the permutations are right.

But the Osun APC is not cohesive. Besides, the elders, called ‘Agba Osun,’ who traditionally are disposed to consensus, have not been able to persuade some of these aspirants to make sacrifices by stepping down. They may not be able to wield the big stick, where necessary, or apply persuasion, when this psychological tool would be most effective.

Next week, the APC national leadership, after linking up with the state chapter, would unfold the mode of primary, either consensus, direct, or indirect.

What should be avoided is a post-primary crisis. The only way to avoid danger and damage is to conduct a substantially free and fair shadow poll.

If the primary is not credible, one or two contenders may defect to either the Social Democratic Party (SDP) or Labour Party (LP).

In Osun, ADC of Rauf Aregbesola is roaring like a lion, but there is no prey to devour. The former governor and minister is intensifying mobilization. Crowds at rallies are uncritically confused with huge popularity and perceived as an expansion of the coast.

Cracks have appeared on the wall, which are not easy to mend. The loyal deputy leader of the ‘Omoluabi Progressives,’ Alhaji Moshood Adeoti of Iwo, twice dumped by the leader, left the group in anger this week. His grouse is that the caucus may not endorse his governorship ambition. His next line of action is unknown.

Adeoti, an experienced grassroots actor, suffered bruises as Alliance for Democracy (AD)/Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) state chairman. He saw the handwriting on the wall but could not decipher it. He may not be as soft as Dr. Najeem Salam, a former Speaker from Ejigbo, if power lands on his palm.

If the calculations of the political parties do not change, then eyes are on Adeleke of Accord, or any party he may adopt; Oyebamiji of APC and Salam of ADC to weather the storms of the primaries. Even then, only one man will become the governor next year.