The Permutations:
There are new political and power dynamics in Kano State, as Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf defects from the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) and Kwankwasiya group to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). As we count down to the 2027 general elections in Nigeria, the days and months ahead will be very interesting. However, even though this is a win for the APC, but due to the sophisticated nature of Kano politics, it is not over until it’s over!
Essentially, Senator Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso a former Governor of Kano State and the national leader of the Kwankwasiya group has overreached. So, obviously, the die is cast. He has lost his key political godson, who, coincidentally, is his son-in-law, to his political arch-enemy, former governor Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, and APC. In my view, this type of politics of sense of entitlement of the political class, and the vicious cycle of transactional political godfatherism in Nigeria is timing out. For instance, we are witnessing what is playing out, which is at a crescendo in Rivers state. We are witnessing what is happening in Kano state. Not long ago, we saw what played out between Governor Uba Sani, and his predecessor, Governor Nasir El- Rufa’i.
This is a lesson for political players that sometimes you need to play the long game. And indeed, for those that have the stay power in politics, they play for the long game.
Potential Implications:
However, with this development, trouble is waiting to happen amongst the political titans within the APC in Kano State. This trouble has been brewing subliminally before the arrival of Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf. Power brokers like a former Governor of Kano State and immediate past National Chairman or the APC Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, who was hitherto the leader of the APC in Kano State; the Deputy Senate President of the Federation, Senator Barau Jibrin, who has been nursing the ambition and has been investing heavily to emerge as the APC Governorship candidate l to contest against Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, and other political juggernauts in Kano he already been scheming for supremacy build to the APC congresses. Therefore, it will be interesting to see how these strange bedfellows will fully align with Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, who has practically no political structure, especially build up to the upcoming ward, state, regional, and national Congresses and Convention.
Kano State politics is peculiar. The fact that Mr. President intervened is true. The fact that the Convention will play a role is true. But as you come down the political structure, the disposition and the consciousness is not the same. The cunningness of the politicians iand voters, including those ones that Mr. President has marshalled, is different. They will go in the night and say, do this.”Shebi” it’s the President. I want to hold on to what he’s given me. But when the day is cast and it’s too late, everybody will answer his name.
The litmus test for his excellency Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf will start having is during the upcoming APC Congress. Because that is when he will start setting up his own political structure. Even though the APC stalwarts may like to “donate” or “rent” their structure for Governor Abba Kabir in the interest winning the elections for President Tinubu and the APC, none of the APC political gladiators is ready to remain political subordinated for the next five, six years.
Therefore what remains to be seen is if the APC political titans will be 100% loyal to Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf. What also remains to be seen if of the Kwankwasiya structure that Governor Abba has taken to APC will get a strong holding within in the APC. Or if they return to the NNPP if they do not feel full accommodated in APC. Or if they will remain in the APC and sabotage the APC at the critical time of elections. This is because the Kano APC is it constituted now is a conglomeration of sworn and bitter political enemies whose rivalry and long term interests are hardly negotiable. Of course in the face value, the words of President Tinubu may sink in and be effective only for a while. But the political gladiators know that the current arrangement only serves the interest of Mr. President, while their respective mid to long term political structures and ambitions are in jeopardy. This is especially so given the fact that the 2027 general elections will determine the political structures and future of these politicians.
Furthermore, it is clear that Governor Abba Kabir’s defection to the APC is for self preservation and to consolidate his quest for second term in office which is not really guaranteed even with the defection to the APC. This is because, the Kwankwasiya movement is still solid at the grassroots level in Kano. Whoever underestimates or overlooks the love for the Kwankwasiya movement under the leadership of Senator Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso is doing so at his own peril! Indeed the masses love Senator Kwankwaso and if anything the defection of Governor Abba Kabir has triggered more attention and sympathy for Senator Kwankwaso and the Kwankwasiya movement.
Meanwhile, it is worthy of note that , due to the alleged overbearing influence of Senator Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso on Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, a few months into the administration of Governor Abba Yusuf, the protagonists, started a mantra in Kano, saying, “Abba tsaya da kafafunka”, or “Abba tsaya da kanka” , meaning, “Abba Kabir, stand on your feet” (Abba be independent). And that mantra was the beginning of what we have seen that has happened today. Consequently, some members of the cabinet of governor Abba Kabir who were also members of the NNPP and the Kwankwasiya movement, including, the former Secretary to the State Government (SSG), Dr. Abdullahi Baffa Bichi, started moving away to the APC, claiming that there is an overbearing hold on the governor by Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. Further down the line, that continued to crystallise. And, obviously, like I said in my opening remarks earlier, this is a typical template of godfatherism, playing out between a godson and godfather.
Well, having done that now, Governor Abba Kabir was able to use this opportunity of his bosse’s overbearing influence, and at the same time, his overreaching with regards to the political dynamics at the national level.
It’s not over until it’s over!:
The defection of Governor Abba Kabir from the NNPP to the APC has certainly dealt a blow on Senator Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso’s political structure- the Kwankwasiya movement, in the short term. However, it is highly likely that in the mid to long term, Senator Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso and the Kwankwasiya movement could resurge stronger, far as potentially Kano state politics is concerned, if anything. This is especially so if we go back to history. Kano politicians and voters are masters of this protest vote game we play.
Let remind us of what happened during the 1991 Gubernatorial elections in Kano State between when the Gubernatorial candidate of the then Social Democratic Party (SDP) candidate, late Engineer, Magaji Abdullahi, and the Gubernatorial candidate of the National Republican Convention (NRC), Arc. Kabiru Ibrahlm Gaya. Members of the two factions of the defunct Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) were members of the SDP. The PRP had two factions: the faction loyal to late Mallam Aminu Kano, the former national leader of the PRP, that we call the “Tabo” group, and the faction loyal to late Alhaki Abubakar Rimi, a former governor of Kano State. This is akin to what we have now in the APC in Kano state, and with governor Abba Kabir group and the APC team under the leadership of Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje which is know in Kano as the “Gandujiya”. group. When push came to shove, and late Engr. Magaji of the PRP “Tabo” faction emerged as the SDP Governorship candidate, the “Santsi” group kept quiet. But during the election, guess what they did? The “Santsi” faction and their supporters, in protest gave their votes to the NRC candidate, and that is how Arc. Kabiru Ibrahlm Gaya emerged as the governor of Kano State. This political calculus, is typical of Kano politics notwithstanding Presidential intervention or interference or directive.
All being said, how Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf continues to deliver the dividends of democracy to the masses in Kano state between now and 2027 and beyond, will determine how the massive Kwankwasiya movement will sway in terms of voting pattern. Now we have seen how the political elites in the cabinet of governor Abba Kabir have moved to the APC. What is important to note is that the defections have not significantly impacted the value of the Kwankwasiya at the grassroots, What remains to be seen is how it plays out in the voting pattern.
