Lagos And 2027 Battle (1) – By Emmanuel Oladesu

Political parties in Lagos State have kicked off preparations for the 2027 general election by mobilising for membership registration. The chapters are also warming up for congresses. Next year, there will be a vacancy in the Government House.

The seat of power is prestigious, with Lagos being the fifth-largest economy in Africa. The governor of the Centre of Excellence is more than the combination of 10 other governors in Nigeria.

So limitless are the resources and opportunities. So populous is the megacity. So huge are also the responsibilities and burdens of governing the fast-growing state that is a mini-Nigeria; a blend of diversity, potentials, and liabilities.

The battle is always fierce, but the outcome is always predictable.

There is no shortage of competent chieftains to succeed Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu on the platform of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in next year’s election.

Opposition parties are trying to make the same claim without concrete proof. Since 1999, they have made serious and feeble efforts to dethrone the ruling bloc, but without success.

Will 2027 be different?

APC is exuding confidence in Lagos, its number one stronghold. Although opposition parties are coming up with their peculiar threats and struggles, eyes are only on the ruling party. The large and formidable structure has withstood the stress and storm for almost three decades.

Yet, the ruling party can hardly let down its guard, given its 2023 experience when the incumbency power and influence collapsed during the presidential poll, with the Labour Party (LP) taking the majority votes over the supposedly poll-confident platform.

Lagos APC members are eager to know the party’s stand on its possible flagbearer in next year’s poll and the senatorial district that will produce him. More often than not, those being groomed for power may not even take note.

Historically, the senatorial districts, constituencies, and even divisions may not really matter. They are mixed and interwoven. There is hardly a clear-cut demarcation. In the past, Senator Tokunbo Afikuyomi, who represented the Central District in the Senate, met himself in the West during the following election. The senator is even a Lagosian of Osun origin. Also, erstwhile House of Assembly Speaker Yemi Ikuforiji from Epe Constituency later represented Ikeja Constituency. The party is the ultimate decider of the direction. Currently, an Epe-born politician is representing Ikeja in the Civil Service Commission because he resides in Isolo, which is part of the old Lagos Division.

Once the candidate receives the majority endorsement in the party, a post-primary crisis is nipped in the bud and the party faces the election squarely.

As Sanwo-Olu prepares to bow out, gladiators are returning to the drawing board to perfect their strategies. They are intensifying consultations and underground mobilisation within the party structures. They can hardly wait for the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) whistle.

Some of them are setting up media structures. All are saving for the rainy day. A source said some of the aspirants will go to Makkah in Saudi Arabia to seek the favour of Allah.

Unlike in other states, the potential contenders in Lagos are careful not to divert the attention of the governor and heat up the state. They are only making moves silently, scrambling for reliable information and hearing the party’s stalwarts out.

However, the nomination of candidate may follow the usual complex and challenging processes. The trend of consensus is emerging in the ruling party as canvassed by the party’s gerontocrats, including pioneer interim national chairman, Chief Bisi Akande, from the the days of the defunct Alliance for Democracy (AD). The option, more or less, was adopted in picking Governor Biodun Oyebanji of Ekiti and Bola Oyebamiji of Osun.

Lagos is the base of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and at least in the ruling party, the buck stops at his desk. He holds the aces in a state he has set on the path of steady progress since 1999. He initiated a 24-year-old development, which has now been expanded.

The contemporary history of Lagos attests to the mystery of its succession politics whereby, since 2007, there is no member of the ruling parties – AD, AC, ACN, and APC – who vied for the ticket and got it without the President’s backing.

Asiwaju Tinubu’s successors – Babatunde Fasola, Akinwunmi Ambode, and Sanwo-Olu – have one thing in common. In reality, they are not politicians with solid personal structures but technocrats – lawyer, chartered accountant, and banker – who became outstanding in public service as Chief of Staff, Accountant-General, and Commissioner. None of them is a big politician, personal friend, confidant, ally, and political associate of the leader.

However, in Lagos APC, only a loyal chieftain can get the ticket. Many have given different interpretations to this concept. But the politicians know the meaning and the essence. Historians will record that while Fashola is credited with the idea of “may your loyalty never be tested,” Sanwo-Olu now comes across as the actual communicator of the strategies for survival. Known for his simplicity, humility, and dedication to the development plan, his successor is expected to build on his good leadership.

Since 2015, no incumbent governor has been in charge of the nomination process. They can only contribute to the party in the overall discussion on the collective succession agenda.

Religion may not be an important factor. The fact that the majority of those eyeing the ticket are Muslims is coincidental. However, for balancing, religion may later play a role in the choice of the running mate.

Indigeneship appears to be a fading issue in cosmopolitan Lagos. Apart from Asiwaju Tinubu, who is a proper and authentic Lagosian, sources have traced the roots of his successors to Ekiti, Ondo, and Ogun.

As a corollary, zoning is weak unless it is meant to achieve a predetermined agenda. The only sub-zone rooting for zoning or rotation in 2027 is the Badagry Division in the Lagos West Senatorial District. The activities of some politicians from the area in this regard are visible in the media. The implication is that a slim strength is being showcased on the platform of ethnicity.

That many aspirants are from Lagos East does not suggest any verbalisation or adoption of zoning. Certain issues are often effectively managed by party leaders because they fall within the framework of internal affairs.

Also, gender is not an issue, although women’s voices tend to favour the choice of a woman deputy governor, if the circumstances allow it.

To serve as Lagos governor is the handwork of fate and destiny. While the privilege eluded giants like Chief Akanbi Onitiri, Chief Adeniran Ogunsanya, Alhaji Ganiyu Dawodu, and Prince Ladega Adeniji-Adele, luck smiled on Alhaji Lateef Jakande, an Awoist journalist jailed along with Obafemi Awolowo for alleged treason in the sixties.

Also, while Chief Dapo Sarunmi, Prof. Femi Agbalajobi, Chief Yomi Edu, and Prince Abiodun Ogunleye could not make it, Chief Michael Otedola miraculously stole the show in the Third Republic.

Ahead of the Fourth Republic, Mr. Akin Kekere-Ekun, Dr. Wahab Dosunmu, Alhaji Rasheed Shitta-Bey, Towry Coker, and Uthman Sodipe presented themselves for selection. But Lagos-based Afenifere leaders of Ogun origin rooted for Senator Tinubu, a National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) financier who just returned from exile. Their words were final in those days. Tinubu won and made a great impact.

In 2007, no fewer than 14 aspirants printed posters. They included Erikitola, Rahman Owokoniran, Tokunbo Afikuyomi, Femi Pedro, Tola Kasali, Ogunleye, Jimi Agbaje, Tunde Fanimokun, Remi Adikwu-Bakare, and Hakeem Gbajabiamila. Attention later shifted to Fashola, described by the leader as the SAN with a sound mind.

As some aspirants stepped down in 2015, Ambode and Obafemi Hamzat were left in the ring. The result was predictable. Four years later, Sanwo-Olu suddenly dominated the scene. Other capable people, like Supo Sasore and Muiz Banire, were off the radar. It is, therefore, difficult to predict who will become the standard-bearer.

All the aspirants being speculated are good. The party leadership is conscious of their strengths and weaknesses. Some of them have ‘Plan B.’ They are in the race as a strategy to draw attention so that they can be considered for other positions if the governorship ticket predictably slips away.

Others really mean business. If Dr. Hamzat puts his hat in the ring, nobody would be surprised.

The deputy governor, who competed with Ambode at the 2015 primary, was offered the ticket as the running mate in 2019 before stepping down for Sanwo-Olu. He is now the longest-serving member of the Lagos State Executive Council (Exco).

Since he joined the Tinubu administration as a commissioner in 2002/’3, he has always been in the government. Hamzat served for eight years under Fashola as commissioner before becoming his Special Adviser when he was Works Minister. He is a man of immense experience with attention to detail.

Environment Commissioner Tokunbo Wahab is a lawyer. He is dynamic and hardworking. Before his current assignment, he had served as the Special Adviser on Education. He first showed interest in the number one seat over 10 years ago.

The state’s Chief of Staff, Tayo Ayinde, who was preferred as the successor to Ambode by some influential associates of Tinubu in 2015, has garnered more administrative experience in the last seven years. A security expert, he was the campaign manager for Sanwo-Olu in the Independent Campaign Group in 2019 and 2023. He is loyal to the party.

Other experienced politicians coveting the seat and putting up personal structures to actualise their dreams include the President’s Chief of Staff and former House of Representatives Speaker Femi Gbajabiamila, who has sponsored empowerment programmes in Surulere Constituency and beyond; House of Assembly Speaker Mudashiru Obasa, who was reinstated after the impeachment controversy; and former Governor Ambode, whose second-term bid hit the rocks in 2019. They have served the party and the state to the best of their abilities. As wealthy politicians, they are in positions to fund state-wide governorship campaigns.

Other contenders being speculated are young men and women of note and distinction who have excelled and earned a good reputation in politics, public service and personal endeavours. One of them is the highly promising Hakeem Muri-Okunola, a lawyer who had served as Head of Service in Lagos State before becoming the Principal Private Secretary to the President.

Also, mention has been made of the Minister of Education, Dr. Tunji Alausa, who is up and doing in his current assignment. A distinguished medical doctor, he is a former Minister of State for Health. Alausa is revolutionalising education in the country through the implementation of broad, bold, brave, and workable reforms in the critical sector. The student loans scheme is being implemented faithfully and industrial peace has been restored in the ivory towers.

Culled from The Nation