Lawmakers in Iran yesterday voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route, as retaliation for US strikes on its nuclear facilities.
The vote comes hours after authorities in the country threatened that the US strikes late Saturday night, which destroyed its three nuclear sites, would have everlasting consequences, saying there were no signs of contamination at its nuclear sites following the attack.
Though the final decision to shut the oil choke points lies with top Iranian security officials, (Supreme National Security Council), according to reports, an attempt to shut the oil route risks triggering a fresh round of energy crisis and global recession.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical choke points, through which a fifth of global oil and a third of the world’s liquefied natural gas supply flows.
So far, most experts had agreed that Iran would not go that far to close the strait but US actions seemed to have changed that.
Possible implications of Strait of Hormuz closure
Analysts posit that any attempt by Iran to close the strait to shipping traffic by potentially threatening vessels with mines or missiles risked causing an oil supply shock, pushing up inflation and sparking a global recession.
They also warned that it could also trigger a significant military response from the US and its allies.
In a note to clients, Eurasia Group said: “The US has amassed a massive military presence in the Gulf and surrounding region, and a move by Iran against the strait would almost certainly trigger a significant military response.”
Ashley Kelty, an oil and gas analyst at Panmure Liberum, said another key question was how Iran’s neighbours in the Middle East would respond.
If Tehran tries to block shipments out of the Strait of Hormuz, it will also hurt the exports of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
“Disrupting the Strait of Hormuz is the easiest way that Iran can respond. But the bigger question is: ‘How much support does the Iranian regime have across the Arab world?’
“If they mine the strait, that basically involves all of the Middle East, because there’s no way that the likes of the Qataris and Saudis are just going to sit back and watch as all their exports are shut in,” he said.
The price of oil settled slightly at around $77 per barrel on Friday after Trump vowed to give Iran two weeks to come to the negotiating table, prompting traders to assume there would be no immediate military action.
But analysts now expect the price to surge higher on Monday as the market’s risk barometer goes up, with the threat of $100 per barrel or more.
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodities analyst at SEB Research, said: “Above $80 now looks very plausible. The next step from there would be actually losing oil supply to the market, through a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or attacks on oil infrastructure inside the Persian Gulf.
The US had joined the war on Iran on Saturday, bombing the country’s three nuclear sites in an operation President Donald Trump described as a spectacular military success.
Dubbed “Operation Midnight Hammer”, the airstrikes targeted Iran’s three nuclear sites, including the primary and most secretive nuclear site – Fordow, Nataz and Esfahan.
The attack by the US followed days of careful deliberations by the Trump’s administration on the consequences of the US direct involvement in the conflict, which has now entered its 10th day.
Meanwhile, International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, yesterday, made a u-turn on its earlier claim that Iran had the capacity to produce nine nuclear war heads, saying that it had no such evidence.
Speaking after the attack, Trump said the objective was to destroy Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity and stop a nuclear threat posed by the world’s number one sponsor of terrorism.
In a social media post after the attack, Trump said: “We have completed our successful attack on the three nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Nataz and Esfahan.
“All planes are now outside of Iran’s space. A full payload of bombs was dropped on the primary site – Fordow. All planes are safely on their way home.”
He congratulated the US army for the successful operation, saying “There is not another military in the world that could have done this,” While declaring “Now is the time for peace.”
Iran must now make peace or face far greater consequences – Trump
Also delivering short remarks after the strikes, Trump said Iran must now pursue peace or risk attacks far severe than what had already been done.
He said: “A short time ago, the US military carried out massive precision strikes on the three key nuclear facilities in the Iranian regime: Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan.
“Everybody heard those names for years as they built this horribly destructive enterprise. Our objective was the destruction of Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity and a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world’s number one state sponsor of terror.
“Tonight, I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success. Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated. Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier.
“For 40 years, Iran has been saying, ‘Death to America, Death to Israel.’ They have been killing our people, blowing off their arms, blowing off their legs, with roadside bombs.
That was their specialty; we lost over 1,000 people and hundreds of thousands throughout the Middle East and around the world have died as a direct result of their hate. In particular, so many were killed by their general, Qasem Soleimani.
“I decided a long time ago that I would not let this happen. It will not continue. I want to thank and congratulate Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu. We worked as a team like, perhaps, no team has ever worked before, and we’ve gone a long way to erasing this horrible threat to Israel.
“I want to thank the Israeli military for the wonderful job they’ve done. And most importantly, I want to congratulate the great American patriots who flew those magnificent machines tonight and all of the United States military on an operation the likes of which the world has not seen in many, many decades.
“Hopefully we will no longer need their services in this capacity. I hope that’s so. I also want to congratulate the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan ‘Razin’ Caine, spectacular general, and all of the brilliant military minds involved in this attack.
“With all of that being said, this cannot continue. There will be either peace or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days. Remember, there are many targets left. Tonight’s was the most difficult of them all, by far, and perhaps the most lethal.
“But if peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed and skill. Most of them can be taken out in a matter of minutes. There’s no military in the world that could have done what we did tonight, not even close. There has never been a military that could do what took place just a little while ago.”
Trump credited the success to God, saying: “And I want to just thank everybody, and in particular, God. I want to just say we love you, God, and we love our great military, protect them.
“God bless the Middle East, God bless Israel, and God bless America.”
Iran threatens everlasting consequences
Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, has called the US strikes outrageous, saying that US has crossed a very big red line.
He said the time for diplomacy had passed, adding that his country had the right to defend itself.
He, therefore, said the US attack would have everlasting consequences.
Also, Iran’s ambassador to the UK, Seyed Ali Mousavi, said: “There’s no intention from our side to go into a military attack.”
Speaking in the same vein, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, described US strikes as a betrayal of diplomacy by the Trump administration, adding that the US must bear the responsibility of outcome of the conflict.
“They cannot talk about diplomacy; they betrayed diplomacy. No one knows what will happen next, but what is sure is that the responsibility of the consequences of this war must be borne by the United States and Israel,” he said.
The diplomat refused to say how Iran might respond to the military strikes by the US, but said Tehran “is entitled to exercise its right of self-defense.”
No signs of contamination
The Muslim nation also said there were no signs of contamination at its nuclear sites at Isfahan, Fordo, and Natanz, hours after the US targeted the three key facilities.
According to Iran’s National Nuclear Safety System Center, its radiation detectors had recorded no radioactive release after the strikes.
The Center, in a statement, also ruled out any danger to residents living around the nuclear sites.
“There is no danger to the residents living around the aforementioned sites,” it said.
Won’t allow nuclear development to stop
Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation yesterday said it would not allow the development of its “national industry”- an apparent reference to the country’s nuclear development – to be stopped. It also said the attacks on its nuclear sites violated international law.
US strikes give Iran legal right to exit NPT, says Iranian lawmaker
With the US strikes yesterday, Iran’s Parliament Foreign Policy Committee Head, Abbas Golroo, said Iran now had the legal right to withdraw from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT.
According to the details, Article 10 states that an NPT member has “the right to withdraw from the Treaty if it decides that extraordinary events have jeopardised the supreme interests of its country.”
No evidence Iran was making nuclear weapons – IAEA chief
Speaking yesterday, Rafael Mariano Grossi, DirectorGeneral, Intelligence at IAEA, said the agency had no proof Iran was weaponising its nuclear programme. “We didn’t have any indication to that effect and this is something I must point out, and it’s very important, because there has been a long speculation about Iran moving toward a nuclear weapon.’’
He stated that the report on Iran’s nuclear programme was not new.
A report on the nuclear verification in Iran could hardly be a basis for any military action.
“Military action, from whomever it comes, is a political decision that has nothing to do with what we’re saying “ he said.
Iran’s nuclear ambitions obliterated, says US Defence Secretary
Briefing the White House reporters yesterday, US Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth,
said that Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been obliterated following the attacks and called on the country to negotiate a diplomatic pathway forward.
He reiterated an unwillingness for America’s intervention in Iran to turn into a protracted waitand said the overnight strikes was “intentionally limited.”
“The order we received from our commander in chief was focused, it was powerful, and it was clear,” Hegseth said.
“We devastated the Iranian nuclear programme, but it’s worth noting the operation did not target Iranian troops or the Iranian people. … Thanks to President Trump’s bold and visionary leadership and his commitment to peace through strength, Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been obliterated.
I would just say, as the president has directed and made clear, this is most certainly not open-ended.
“The most powerful military in the world is postured and prepared to defend our people,” Hegseth said.
He noted that the US was making multiple efforts to communicate with Iranian officials following the US’s strikes on Iranian nuclear sites throughboth public and private channels.
“I can only confirm that there are both public and private messages being directly delivered to the Iranians in multiple channels, giving them every opportunity to come to the table.
“They understand precisely what the American position is, precisely what steps they can take to allow for peace, and we hope they do so.”
The US and Iran had held five rounds of nuclear talks, led by special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, since April. A sixth round of talks set for last Sunday was canceled following unprecedented Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear sites and military officials.
The White House had said the US remained in correspondence with Iran last week.
Next steps up to Iran – Marco Rubio
US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, stated the next steps were up to the Iranian government, saying: “If the regime wants peace, we’re ready for peace. If they want to do something else, they’re incredibly vulnerable. They can’t even protect their own airspace,” Rubio said.
Rubio also warned against Iranian attacks on countries in the region that host American military forces.
“That’s exactly why they are there. All those bases are there because those countries are afraid Iran will attack them,” Rubio said. “Those bases are there because those countries are petrified.”
US not at war with Iran – Vance
Meanwhile, the U.S. Vice President, JD Vance, said America has no interest in boots on the ground in Iran, saying that he doesn’t believe the strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites would lead to a wider war.
“We have no interest in boots on the ground. I don’t fear that this is going to become a protracted conflict,” he said.
Major US cities on high alert
Authorities in New York and Washington are on high alert after the US strikes.
Former New York Police Department, NYPD, Inspector explained that enhanced security measures including special patrol cposthave been deployed at vulnerable places.
“We’re tracking the situation unfolding in Iran,” NYPD said in a post on X.
“Out of an abundance of caution, we’re deploying additional resources to religious, cultural, and diplomatic sites across NYC and coordinating with our federal partners. We’ll continue to monitor for any potential impact to NYC.
The Metropolitan Police Department, MPD, released a similar statement on the social media platform.
“The Metropolitan Police Department is closely monitoring the events in Iran,” the statement said.
“We are actively coordinating with our local, state, and federal law enforcement partners to share information and monitor intelligence in order to help safeguard residents, businesses, and visitors in the District of Columbia.”
MPD said there were no known threats to the district, but that it would increase its presence at religious institutions across the city.
How world leaders are reacting
Concerned by the escalating conflict in the Middle East, world leaders have reacted after the United States struck Iran’s nuclear facilities.
UK’s Foreign Secretary David Lammy urged Iran to show restraint and reach a diplomatic solution to end the crisis in a post on X, insisting that the UK did not participate in the US strikes.
Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, earlier urged Iran to return to the negotiating table after the US’ strikes, calling Iran’s nuclear programme “a grave threat to international security.”
France’s Foreign minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, said France had noted the US strikes overnight with concern, adding that it had not participated.
“France has repeatedly expressed its very firm opposition to Iran acquiring nuclear weapons. France is convinced that a lasting resolution to this issue requires a negotiated solution within the framework of the Non-Proliferation Treaty,” he said, noting that France remained ready to contribute to negotiation in collaboration with its partners.
In Germany, Federal Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, reiterated his call on Iran to enter into immediate negotiations with the USA and Israel and to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict.
However, Russia’s foreign ministry condemned the strikes, calling it an irresponsible decision that flagrantly violated international law.
“We call for an end to aggression and for increased efforts to create conditions for returning the situation to a political and diplomatic track,” the ministry said, warning that the US strikes meant “a dangerous round of escalation has begun,” which risks further undermining security in the region
In China, the foreign ministry said: “China strongly condemns the US attack on Iran and the nuclear facilities under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency. This move by the US seriously violates the purposes and principles of the UN Charter and international law, and exacerbates tensions in the Middle East.
“China calls on the parties to the conflict, especially Israel, to ceasefire as soon as possible, ensure the safety of civilians, and start dialogue and negotiations.’’
In Turkey, the foreign ministry said it had “consistently warned about the risk of the conflict, sparked by Israeli aggression, spreading throughout the region and destabilising the security environment” in a statement, saying the US strike “has elevated that risk to its highest level.”
“Tukey is deeply concerned about the potential consequences of the US attack on the nuclear facilities of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The current developments could escalate the regional conflict into a global one. The only way to resolve the dispute over Iran’s nuclear program is through negotiations,” the statement read.
In European Union, President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said: “Now is the moment for Iran to engage in a credible diplomatic solution. The negotiating table is the only place to end this crisis.” European Council President, Antonio Costa, said he was deeply alarmed by the news arriving from the Middle East.
He said: “Diplomacy remains the only way to bring peace and security to the Middle East. Too many civilians will once again be the victims of a further escalation. The EU will continue engaging with the parties and our partners to find a peaceful solution at the negotiating table.’’
In Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney, said the situation in the Middle East remained highly volatile and stressed that stability in the region was a priority.
He called on parties to return to the negotiating table to reach a diplomatic solution to the crisis which “should lead to a broader de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, including a ceasefire in Gaza.”
Japan’s Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, said “a de-escalation as soon as possible is more important than anything” but that “at the same time, Iran’s nuclear weapons development must be stopped.”
He told reporters in Tokyo that the country was closely monitoring the situation with grave concern.
Meanwhile, in Iran, 639 people have been killed and more than 1,300 wounded in the Israeli assault, according to Iranian media reports.
